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France in Figures + Country Outlook
| General Population density : 105 persons per sq km Life expectancy: Men: 73.8, Women: 81.9 Birth rate (1995) : 12 per 1000 Death rate (1995) : 9 per 1000 Marriages (1995) : 255 000 Divorces (1995) : 108 000 Education (1995) : Pre-school - high school: 12.6 million pupils Higher education: 2.075 million students Active population : 26 million working, of which 19 million in salaried positions (December 1995) Socio-professional groups: Farmers: 2.7% of the active pop. (a.p.) Artisans, storekeepers, and self-employed: 6.5% of a.p. Middle managers and professionals: 10.7% of a.p. Intermediate occupations: 17.6% of a.p. White-collar workers: 23.5% of a.p. Manual workers: 30% of the active population. The French abroad 1.7 million French people live outside France (1995) 52% in Europe 25.2% in North America 10.8% in Africa 5% in the Middle East 4.5% in Oceania 2.5% in Asia
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| Territory Area : 550 000 sq km Economy GNP (1995) : 7,600 billion Francs (world's fourth economic power) Energy Self-sufficiency : 51,6 % Transportation Roads : 964,356 km of roads, of which 7 396 km of superhighways Tourism Over 61 million foreign tourists in 1996, making France the number one worlwide destination! In the year 2000, Paris had a record 26 million visitors of which 2.1 million were American, and 1.6 million were Britons. 60% of visitors were from a foreign country, and the remainder 40% from other parts of France.
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| Country Outlook | as of October 9, 2000 |
The left-of-centre governing coalition, led by Lionel Jospin, has been weakened by recent ministerial resignations and nationwide protests against fuel taxes, but it is still expected to remain in power until 2002, when legislative and presidential elections are due to be held. After appearing to have benefited from the downturn in Mr Jospin's fortunes, the right-of-centre president, Jacques Chirac, has been hit by new allegations concerning his role in illicit political party funding in the 1980s. The new allegations have placed a question-mark over Mr Chirac's ambitions to stand at the next presidential election in May 2002. The finance minister, Laurent Fabius, has announced a three-year programme of tax cuts. The cuts are set to be "front-loaded" in the 2001 budget and will not be offset by comparable cuts in public expenditure. Despite cyclically buoyant tax receipts, therefore, fiscal consolidation is likely to be modest over the next two years. Fiscal relaxation in other euro area countries, coupled with narrowing output gaps in France and Germany, is likely to result in a further tightening of monetary policy in 2001. Real GDP will slow in 2001, but will still grow by a robust 3%, which will be sufficient to drive the rate of unemployment below 9%. | |
| Domestic Politics | |
| Events since early September have left France facing a period of increased political uncertainty. Although the economy continues to grow buoyantly and unemployment remains on a downward trend, ministerial departures have continued to disrupt the delicate internal balance of the "plural majority" coalition. | |
| International Relations | |
| Domestic political developments have not provided an auspicious background for surmounting the challenges facing French foreign policy. In July France took over the six-month presidency of the EU at a particularly crucial time in the organisation's history. An inter- governmental conference (IGC) is currently negotiating important amendments to the treaties with a view to preparing the EU institutionally for its enlargement to the east. The success of the French presidency over the next few months will be largely judged by its ability to bring the IGC to a conclusion at the EU's summit in Nice in December this year. | |
| Policy Trends | |
| The need to maintain the cohesion of the governing coalition and to placate traditional supporters in the public sector, social discontent brought on by the rise in fuel prices, and public complacency engendered by the strength of the cyclical upturn will not provide particularly auspicious conditions for driving through fiscal, regulatory and microeconomic reforms. | |
| International Assumptions | |
| The global economy has rebounded strongly from the emerging markets' financial crisis, and world growth (in terms of purchasing power parity) is now forecast to average 4.9% this year, the fastest growth rate since 1984. World growth will slow to 4.2% in 2001, reflecting a projected soft landing in the US economy (US growth is forecast to slow from 5.2% in 2000 to 3.3% in 2001). Growth in the euro area will also slow, but all major regions will still grow by 3% or more. | |
| Economic Growth | |
| Slightly weaker growth figures than expected in the first half of the year have forced the EIU to revise its forecast for real GDP growth in 2000 down to 3.6%. Despite the slight downward revision France will still be the fastest growing of the large EU economies this year. Real GDP growth will slow to 3% in 2001 and to 2.5% in 2002, as the investment boom of the past three years loses steam and export growth decelerates against a background of moderating external demand. | |
| Inflation | |
| Inflation has picked up sharply since the beginning of last year, rising from 0.3% in early 1999 to 1.8% in August this year (the highest rate recorded since October 1996). As elsewhere in the euro area, external factors--particularly the threefold increase in the dollar price of oil and the continued depreciation of the euro--have been primarily responsible for exerting upward pressure on inflation. Domestically generated inflation, by contrast, has been subdued and is expected to remain so over the next two years. Provided the external factors which have pushed up inflation over the past year abate, inflation should stay below the ECB's 2% ceiling in 2001 and 2002. | |
| Exchange Rates | |
| Having depreciated almost uninterruptedly against the US dollar since its launch, the euro stabilised somewhat in June and July before weakening again in August. Although the narrowing of the interest- rate differential between the euro area and the US has encouraged a net inflow of portfolio investment in euro-denominated debt securities, outflows of direct and equity investments into the US have continued to weigh on the euro's external value against the US dollar. We still expect the euro to climb back above parity against the dollar in 2001, but more slowly than previously forecast. | |
| External Sector | |
| Following a brief slowdown in early 1999, French goods exports have recovered strongly on the back of rebounding demand in large markets such as Germany and the UK, as well as the weakness of the euro, which has boosted French competitiveness outside the euro area. Despite a deterioration in the terms of trade, France's trade balance remained strongly in surplus in 1999 and is expected to remain so in 2000-02 and beyond. Although demand outside the EU (particularly in the UK and the US) is forecast to slow, France's trade surplus should still be underpinned by robust demand within the euro area and, from 2001 onwards, by improved terms of trade. SOURCE: Country outlook | |